Call (800) 355-2116

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Seeking Alpha Writer Sees 2 Drivers That Could Send Gold Prices Higher

Gold prices could steadily rise in the short term and long term.

Seeking Alpha's Clif Droke sees two solid drivers that could send gold prices higher, one in the shorter term and one over the long-term.

The short term driver is a potential reignition of safe-haven demand due to a build-up of weakness in stocks.

Some have expressed concerns that the stock market's run is built on overly-optimistic projections, and the recent surge in 52-week lows posted by NYSE-listed stocks corroborates this. In this article, Droke expresses that the broad market faces internal selling pressure, and a continuation of this weakness could lead to a familiar flight to the safety of gold as stock market indices slump.

As his long-term driver, Droke points to an unusual combination of fear and inflation expectations. While these might not seem to go hand-in-hand, Droke argues that they have been the yellow metal's biggest backers since last year.

After a jump in prices brought on by the merciless campaigns of both presidential candidates, gold assumed a downwards trajectory when Donald Trump was elected in November. The "Trump bump" saw investors abandon safe-haven assets in order to load up on equities, riding on the promises of a stronger and more stable economy.

However, the article points out that this faith has since largely evaporated amid political concerns, including uncertainty over Trump's tax plan and its ability to stimulate the markets. A strong booster for gold on its own, political uncertainty in the U.S. is aided by inflation expectations, which Droke feels are significant enough to facilitate a gradual increase in gold prices.

While the markets aren't expecting high inflation in the near future, Droke reminds us that present-day inflation is still markedly higher than it was two years ago when deflation was on the horizon. Furthermore, signs such as a lessened appetite for money point to an upcoming increase in U.S. inflation.

Droke notes that the demand for money was at its highest immediately after the credit crash as the world economy looked to rebuild itself. Since then, economies around the world have improved, led by developed Asian countries – in turn, demand for money has subsided as investors braced for higher inflation, improving the outlook for gold over the longer term.

Despite recent dips, Droke points out that the gold price is far above its December 2015 lows and is closer to its 4-year high than it is to the low. Cracks in the equity market, concerns over the U.S. political situation and a rise in inflation expectations should provide ample support for the yellow metal moving forward.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.