Why Gold Prices Took a Hit Last Week

Gold prices hit their lowest levels in five years last week, trading below $1,100. What was the real driving factor behind the price's decrease?

Without a doubt, many will use recent developments in the global economy as an excuse. The Grexit no longer looks like a certainty thanks to a bailout of questionable sustainability. China's gold cravings seem to be lesser-than-usual. There's also the looming threat of an interest rate hike and a subsequent strengthening of the dollar.

Yet, upon further examination, none of these seem to be the guilty party that sent gold plummeting. China's gold demand is strong despite day-to-day deviations, and the U.S. rate hike isn't nearly as 'around the corner' as many believe. Most importantly, perhaps, gold is fundamentally different from other commodities, having different demand drivers.

Instead, Mining.com's Frik Els points out two recent events that he refers to as a 'one-two punch that floored gold price'; one from the U.S. and one from China.

Els argues that the U.S.'s part in gold's fall came via speculators in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission slashing their net-long positions, with managed-money accounts significantly reducing their exposure to gold futures. Many of these sales came as a result of uncertainty regarding the direction that the gold market is heading in.

Similarly, Els notes that China played its part by performing a massive gold sale worth $2 billion in just a matter of minutes. Due to its size, the Monday Shanghai Gold Exchange sale of 4.7 tons immediately caused gold to drop by 4.3 percent – gold sales usually average no more than 96 kilograms a minute on the SGE.

Els adds that these seemed an "almost concerted cross-continental effort to push price through support levels that the metal has bounced off numerous times before." Yet despite these drawbacks, gold still managed to bounce back to $1,100 almost immediately.

While such falls in the price of gold are universally viewed as negative, many buyers still see them as little more than a buying opportunity. As gold fell by over 3 percent in both India and Turkey, consumer interest in these markets grew – the metal's low correlation with other assets makes it ideal as a safety-net investment to diversify one's portfolio.

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China's new gold fix to rival the establishment of the West

For years, the gold fixed has been based in London. But with increasing concerns of manipulation, China is seizing an opportunity to take over the reigns.

With the recent introduction of the London gold fix, there has been some speculation in the markets that China would also participate in the new system to price they yellow metal. However, recent indications are that the country is in fact now looking to have a pricing system of its own. Reuters reports that China is already working on a yuan-denominated gold fix, which is expected to go live later this year.

The yuan gold fix would launch on the international platform of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), with the SGE acting as the medium for the trading. This is somewhat in contrast to the existing London gold fix, whose trades are done between banks without a governing body. That said, the SGE did work with major Chinese banks (and even some foreign ones) when creating the benchmark.

Despite the process already being significantly underway, a participant directly involved in the testing told Reuters: "No final proposal on the fix has been given yet. This was like beta testing and there is still some room for discussion."

This step is seen as yet another move meant to establish China as a global financial force. With the country being among the top in the world both in terms of gold production and consumption, it's not too surprising that they are using the yellow metal to establish their currency by imposing their own benchmark on any Chinese gold trades. Indeed, considering its share of the global gold market, much of this decision stems from China feeling entitled to its own fix.

While the creation of an additional fix itself isn't a direct move against the existing gold pricing system, it's possible that the Chinese gold fix might end up pressuring and competing against the one currently based in London.

It's probably no coincidence that China is pushing for its own gold fix at a time when the established pricing system in London has found itself under heavy criticism due to lack of transparency. To counter such claims against its own system, and reduce concerns about potential manipulation, the SGE will look to trade a 1 kilogram contract a few minutes every day.

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